Ultra-Orthodox Kingmakers: How Shas and UTJ Will Shape Eisenkot's Coalition Path

The October 2026 Election Left No Clear Winner

The October 27, 2026 election resulted in Netanyahu's bloc securing 53 seats and Eisenkot's opposition winning 48 seats, with neither reaching the 61-seat majority required to govern. The 120-member Knesset now faces a genuine political stalemate—one that puts Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), the two ultra-Orthodox parties that prioritize maintaining broad exemptions from IDF service for yeshiva students, in the position of kingmakers.

For olim and Jewish families considering aliyah, this matters. Coalition instability directly affects government continuity on issues from healthcare integration to housing subsidies for new arrivals. A fragile government means delayed legislation and budget uncertainty.

The Ultra-Orthodox Split: Shas Stays Loyal, UTJ Explores Eisenkot

Shas's spiritual leader has indicated openness to joining a government led by Eisenkot, yet Shas chairman Arye Deri has ruled out joining an opposition-led government without Likud, while United Torah Judaism has emerged as a potential coalition partner. This creates a stunning crack in the traditional ultra-Orthodox bloc.

The division reflects fundamental strategic differences. Shas primarily represents Sephardi and Mizrahi haredi and religious Jews, while UTJ represents Ashkenazi haredi communities. Shas remains historically tied to Netanyahu and the right-wing coalition; UTJ, led by newly appointed chairman Yaakov Asher, now considers unprecedented flexibility.

The failure to find a lasting legal way to exempt Haredi men led Shas and UTJ to leave the Likud-led coalition in 2025. Frustration with Netanyahu over stalled draft-exemption legislation has weakened old bonds.

How Eisenkot's Minority Government Could Work—And Why It's Fragile

Under a proposed arrangement, UTJ would remain outside the coalition but help keep an Eisenkot-led government in power by abstaining from votes rather than voting against it or its legislation. This creative workaround avoids the military-service dispute—UTJ doesn't have to endorse universal conscription, but doesn't block Eisenkot's legislation either.

For UTJ, supporting an Eisenkot minority government from outside would reduce the political burden of officially joining while still exerting influence in negotiations over the military service law. Netanyahu's camp holds 53 seats, while the opposition stopped at 48, meaning neither side secured a majority of 61 seats—so UTJ's 7 seats become a genuine swing factor.

However, Eisenkot has set conditions for coalition leadership, including committing to a Zionist government that backs universal military service—which UTJ opposes—and dismantling Hamas. The compromise is possible but requires both sides to redefine what "supporting a government" means.

What This Means for Olim and Families Planning Aliyah

For those weighing an immediate move to Israel versus waiting for stability, this coalition picture cuts both ways.

Olim who can wait 2–3 weeks should do so. A functioning Eisenkot government with external UTJ support would provide minimum stability for housing allocations and healthcare integration. Those relocating immediately should confirm with Nefesh B'Nefesh or Misrad Haklita (Ministry of Aliyah and Integration) that their absorption services remain funded through government transitions.

The worst-case scenario—new elections—would freeze social services for 4+ months. Another possibility being discussed is to initially establish a government without the haredi parties and then attempt to bring them into the coalition after the conscription law passes the Knesset. This staged approach could extend uncertainty.

Key Political Unknowns That Could Shift Everything

Three dynamics remain unresolved as of November 1, 2026:

1. Will Shas budge? A Shas source told media: "If Eisenkot has any sense, he will form a government and not fill the ministerial positions that are important to us. If there is a reasonable conscription law, perhaps we will join later." This suggests Shas might wait on the sidelines until draft law terms emerge—but waiting carries risk. If Eisenkot + UTJ succeeds without them, Shas loses leverage.

2. Can Eisenkot hold his coalition together? As long as Eisenkot's voters oppose joining Netanyahu, Eisenkot will not go against their wishes—but some Likud officials argue that Eisenkot has no better alternative and conclude he will eventually agree to join a government led by Netanyahu, despite his previous commitments. Coalition discipline is uncertain.

3. Will the conscription issue deadlock everything? The military draft was a major issue in the election, with the ultra-Orthodox parties facing pressure over their opposition to mandatory enlistment for yeshiva students. Eisenkot has set universal military service as a condition for his coalition. This is the core friction point.

Practical Steps for Olim During Coalition Uncertainty

Confirm absorption services before signing housing contracts. Coalition delays affect government housing subsidies for newcomers. Contact Misrad Haklita directly to confirm your absorption benefits package remains valid through government formation.

Stagger major moves if you have flexibility. If aliyah can wait 3–4 weeks, do so. A functioning government (even a minority one) will handle olim registration, tax ID assignment, and healthcare enrollment more smoothly than a transition period.

Monitor Knesset speaker elections as an early signal. Ultra-Orthodox sources assess that Shas and UTJ are unlikely to actively support the opposition bloc's efforts to replace the Knesset speaker. If the opposition replaces the speaker (a procedural first step), it signals coalition talks are advancing. If that fails, expect a longer deadlock.

Plan as if a government exists. While political talks continue, core social services (emergency healthcare, public transportation, water and electricity) operate normally. Bank account opening, vehicle registration, and work permits function under civil service continuity. Don't postpone practical moves based on coalition drama alone.

FAQ: Eisenkot's Coalition and Your Aliyah Timeline

Q: Will a minority government with UTJ support be stable enough to process olim visas and absorption?

A: Yes, with caveats. UTJ supporting from outside the coalition by abstaining from votes rather than voting against legislation gives Eisenkot a reliable baseline. Visa processing and absorption benefits operate through the civil service, which continues regardless of coalition composition. However, new social-housing programs or expanded tax breaks for olim might be delayed if they require Knesset votes.

Q: If negotiations collapse and there's a new election, how long until a working government exists?

A: Typically 4–6 months from election to government. The Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, and the October 27 election followed. If talks fail by mid-November, expect elections in late February 2027 at earliest, with a government seated by spring 2027. During this period, budgets remain frozen and most new legislation stalls.

Q: Does Shas's refusal to join an Eisenkot-led government without Likud mean the coalition can't form?

A: No. Adding both ultra-Orthodox parties to the three opposition bloc parties would bring their combined strength to 54 seats, seven short of a majority. But UTJ alone—7 seats—plus Eisenkot's 48 gives 55. Adding the Arab Ra'am party's 8 seats reaches 63. Alternatively, UTJ would be absent from Knesset votes and wouldn't vote against the government, with Eisenkot allowed to rely on the seven seats of the Islamic Ra'am party. Shas's absence is survivable if UTJ cooperates.

Q: Should I commit to a 5-year lease or wait to buy a home until the coalition settles?

A: A minority government is stable enough for real-estate decisions. The ultra-Orthodox parties' coalition choices have become central to forming the next government, with the 26th Knesset election results leaving neither bloc with 61 seats, making this a genuine power-sharing scenario, not a crisis. Rents and property prices won't swing dramatically based on coalition talks. However, if you're relying on government housing subsidies specific to olim, wait 2–3 weeks to confirm which housing programs survive coalition formation.

The Bottom Line for Olim

Israel's political deadlock is real, but it's not a reason to postpone aliyah. Shas and UTJ are set to win 18 combined seats, and both parties—whether in or outside a coalition—have incentive to keep a government functioning. UTJ's willingness to explore supporting Eisenkot from outside the coalition suggests pragmatism. Shas's demand for draft-law concessions is leverage, not a veto.

What matters for you: confirm with absorption authorities that services continue, plan your move for the next 3–4 weeks if you can, and understand that a minority government (the most likely outcome) operates normally for routine olim services. The political debate is about who controls ministries and security policy—not whether the lights stay on and your visa gets processed.

As we covered in our earlier analysis of Arab parties' record 17–19 seats and coalition deadlock reshaping Israeli stability, this election has created genuine multi-party dependency. For olim, that's actually stabilizing—no single party can hijack the government, and coalitions are negotiated openly. That's more predictable than concentrated power.